11/4 Map Update

Post 70

This map is updated as of 6PM 11/3. The final image will be my prediction map, let it be as it is.

State-by-State (swing states)

Over all, Obama is winning 338 to 200

Virginia - This swing state is still in the Obama camp, with a 4.3 point lead
Florida - Some recent strong polling showed Obama up by 1.6
Ohio - In the buckeye state, Obama is up 2.3 points
Nevada - The sin state has Obama in the lead by 6.2 points
Colorado - The state that housed the Democrat Convention has given Obama a 5.5 point lead


North Carolina - McCain has regained this southern state and is now leading by .6 points
Montana - McCain is keeping his lead here with 3.8 points
Arizona - While I do not think Obama can win this state, McCain has only a 3.5 point lead
Indiana - The state that always vote Republican is back in their camp, 1.4 points
Georgia - While Barr is hurting McCain here, McCain still has 4 points
Missouri - A .5 point lead is all that McCain has here

National

When looking at the national polls between Obama and McCain, you notice that Obama has a healthy 7.3 point lead.

When you take Barr and Nader into the equation, Obama's lead jumps up to 7.8 points.

Whalertly's Predictions:

This is what Whalertly thinks will happen... Please feel free to make alternate maps on this site and there are poll data on This one . Please explain your reasoning, and I hope that the best map wins...

I believe that Ohio, Virginia, and Florida will all switch due to hidden racism in the polls and the fact that they are not all that accurate.

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10/28 Map Update

Post 67

There will be another map update on Tuesday at midnight, before any elections start. This current update is accurate up to 1:30 Monday Afternoon.

State-by-State (swing states)

Over all, Obama is winning 375 to 163

Florida - Obama is still hanging on to a lead in the peninsula state with a 1.9 point margin

Indiana - Surprising me, Indiana has moved into the Obama category. Granted, this is by .3 points

North Carolina - Like last week, Obama is holding this state with a slim 1.5 point lead

Nevada - Obama is keeping his lead in the sin state with a 3.5 point margin

Ohio - With, in my mind, the last entry considering Ohio a SS, Obama has a 6 point le

ad

New Hampshire - Like Ohio, with its last entry as a swing state, Obama has a 5.6 point lead

Missouri - While McCain is making more ground here, Obama has +1.0

Montana - Now considered a swing state, McCain is still leading here by 4.5 points

Georgia -McCain is still holding on to his lead in this state with a 5.6 point margin

Arizona - Holy shit, a runners state is in play, McCain still is winning by 6 points

National

When looking at the national polls between Obama and McCain, you notice that Obama has a healthy 7.4 point lead.

When you take Barr and Nader into the equation, Obama's lead jumps up to 9.3 points.

Map

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Map update for the week of 10/19-10/25

State-by-State (swing states)
Overall, Obama is winning 364-174

Nevada, and its 5 EC votes has moved into the Obama column with a +4.2 average
Colorado is staying in the Obama camp with a +6
Pennsylvania is now solidly Obama (I am no longer considering it a swing) with +13
Ohio is staying in the Obama category with a +3.3; however, two recent polls show McCain winning
Missouri, with its 11 EC votes, has moved into Obama. However, it is far too close to call... +3
Virginia, like Penn., has now moved out of the SS column by showing a strong +9 for Obama
North Carolina is now a +1.3 for Obama, still easily in the margin
Florida is +3.2 for Obama
New Mexico is no longer a swing state as well, with a +8.3 for Obama
New Hampshire has moved out of the swing state grouping, +8.3 for Obama

West Virginia is staying strong for McCain, with a +2.4 average
North Dakota is still with McCain, +4


National

Nationally speaking, the overall polls are roughly the same as they were last week: Obama is leading with a 5.3 point average.
When you take Barr and Nader into the equation, Obama's lead RAISES to 9.3 points



Map



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Signs Signs, Everywhere are signs...

Post 61

See, and none of you thought that the last sentence in my last post meant anything. Look, I was giving you all a hint, enjoy it...

I drive down any street and see signs in every yard. From signs about certain landscapers to signs about roofers to signs about painters to signs telling me that something is art (a Worthington thing, the item is not art, and we should have no art building here). All of these signs exist to capture my attention, to get me to use the product next time I need that sort of product, or to get me to support another cause. These signs are colorful, have 'catchy' slogans, and they sometimes even have pretty little pictures. Yep, you agree to advertise for companies, politicians, and organizations for free. Don't you feel used?

Signs appear more often during this time of year, especially, on the even years. We have signs for Kilroy, signs for Strivers, signs for Obama/Biden, and signs for McCain*Palin. All of the signs have small text and disclaimers, they all have websites, yet the only thing you can usually read is the candidate that is running. These signs, of course, give you only a brief view into the house owners psyche. Did they just like the colors? Do they support all of the policies or only more than the other persons? Why McCain over Obama? Why Obama over McCain? You know absolutely nothing about these people.

Wait, but you actually know a lot more about people then you thought. Say I have a sign that says I support Obama as well as a sign that I support Kilroy; clearly, the assumption is that Kilroy is similar to Obama. Now, this seems obvious, unless you get signs for Strivers and signs for Obama. Yep, a rather-right candidate with a rather-left candidate. Hmmm, see a problem here? Certain good candidates could be lost by their grouping with the bad candidates. This sort of thing is common, and has cost several persons and issues their passing. If I see a sign for Issue 6 with a sign for McCain, odds are I will vote against Issue 6. When you start dealing with undecideds (as I am for most state based issues, not federal or local) then you need to be cautious of what signs you put out.

Now, you are all probably asking where this all came from; well, the other day I was following a car that had bumper stickers galore on it. From “make love not war” to “Obama/Biden” to “no more Bush in the white house until we elect a woman” it seemed like a typical left-leaning (far) car. This is all fine and dandy to me, as I already associate Obama with anti-bush. The problem was the oldest and biggest bumper sticker: “Free Leonard Peltlier”. You know what, he shot and killed two federal agents, WHY THE HELL SHOULD WE FREE HIM. If I knew nothing about the candidates they supported, the positions on the stickers, and Mr. Obama, then I would never would support those people after reading these crazy bumper stickers. Keep your stickers rational if you want to help somebody mainstream get into power.

Guys, if you want to help somebody, make sure you don't alienate everybody else.

*MAP UPDATE*

I have finally resigned to the fact that every week is going to be poll after poll. While Ohio is still standing in the Obama category, the most recent poll gave McCain a 2 point lead; Ohio is a state to watch. Surprisingly, Virginia is now strongly in the Obama category (+8 average) which is far above the hidden racism issue. New Hampshire, which was considered one of the must wins this year, now has a +10.3 average for Obama.

Some good news for McCain, not only is he gaining in Ohio, but he is also regaining in Florida and holding in Missouri.

Overall, Obama is winning the EC 353 to 185 which is a strong lead. In the general polling, Obama is winning with a 49.7 to 42.4 point lead (7.3 points overall). When Barr and Nader are added to the equation, Obama is winning by only 4.2 points. Nader is pulling 2.5 points where as Barr is pulling 1.3 points. No wonder more Republicans donate to Nader than democrats. While the polls do not include the hidden racism, he seems to be outside of that margin in most states. With these constant leads, it seems more and more that Obama has this in the bag... barring a October Surprise...

*END OF MAP UPDATE*

As always, please leave any comments, no matter how large or how small about the contents of this blog post. Also, please leave any comments/suggestions about this site/post as a whole.

Feel free to e-mail me if you so wish too instead.

Thanks,

Robert M. Barga,

Editor of http://whalertly.blogspot.com/

barga.24@osu.edu

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Taxes Part 2

Post 60

Today we are going to take a look at how the taxes proposed by both the McCain camp and the Obama camp will effect the citizens in Ohio. The graphs use the tax changes provided by The Washington Post and The New York Times. The data on Ohio is provided by the 2000 Census.

I ask you to take a look at this image, and decide which candidate really has your best interest in mind. If you make over one million dollars a year I can understand why you would be vocal in support of Senator McCain. If you make under twenty thousand a year then I can understand why you support Senator Obama. This chart is merely to help you look at the financial aspect of the presidential race; if the financial burden on you is all that you care about, please vote based on this information. If you care about more than just the money, use this to help you weigh your decision. Please pass this on to all undecideds that you know, and pass this throughout the INTERNET.

This graphic is slight skewed due to the fact that the census data stopped at 200,000 and does not line up perfectly with the tax brackets given. If the amount falls within multiple tax brackets, then the average of the two will be used. Please use your yearly income when you look at this graph. Keep in mind that the Average yearly income per household in Ohio is $40,960. In all of these graphs Red is McCain and Blue is Obama.

As always, please leave any comments, no matter how large or how small about the contents of this blog post. Also, please leave any comments/suggestions about this site/post as a whole.

Feel free to e-mail me if you so wish too instead.

Thanks,

Robert M. Barga,

Editor of http://whalertly.blogspot.com/

barga.24@osu.edu

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The Double Standard of American Politics - With Commentary from Barga

Post 51

Please remember that the political maps are now located at the end of the posts. I am still unpacking my boxes in my new apartment. You know, it didn't feel like mine until my bed got put in (even though everything was already here)

I was linked from Gaia, Huffington post, some comments on other blogs I participate in, and 5 (yes, 5) different people emailed me to do this entry. Recently, there was a post over at That Minority Thing which happened to discuss the hypocrisy and double standard that exists within politics. I have decided to copy it here and post my responses to each one. As a preview, I find most of these two volumes to be partisan bullshit and not really worth any response. They are comparing a vocal minority to what they think is right, which is pointless in politics.

We need to stop doing this sort of thing, it ruins politics and drowns out legitimate arguments.

My comments, of course, are bolded.

Vol. 1

1. 1. If you’re a minority and you’re selected for a job over more qualified candidates you’re a “token hire.”

   2. If you’re a conservative and you’re selected for a job over more qualified candidates you’re a “game changer.”

      • In this case, both companies have morons in the HR department. One should be hired on merit alone (remember, Merit is not just qualifications, but how you would work with the other members.

2. 1. If you live in an Urban area and you get a girl pregnant you’re a “baby daddy.”

   2. If you’re the same in Alaska you’re a “teen father.” (Actually, according to your own MySpace page you’re an F’n redneck that don’t want any kids, but that’s too long a phrase for the evil liberal media to take out of context and flog morning noon and night).

      • This is an issue of semantics, I do not see the issue here; however, his description of his own self is quite amusing.

3. 1. Black teen pregnancies? A “crisis” in black America.

   2. White teen pregnancies? A “blessed event.”

      • A death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic. The issue here is comparing all black pregnancies to ONE white one. Frankly, there needs to be less premarital pregnancies in all racial groupings.

4. 1. If you grow up in Hawaii you’re “exotic.”

   2. Grow up in Alaska eating mooseburgers, you’re the quintessential “American story.”

      • The difference here is the narrative, you are comparing a living location to a life story. By doing this the right-side is able to argue one is a exotic danger and the other is your stereotypical American. That said, they are equal when the narrative is out (both exotic and both stereotypical).

5. 1. Similarly, if you name you kid Barack you’re “unpatriotic.”

   2. Name your kid Track, you’re “colorful.”

      • Where was the name 'barack' ever called unpatriotic. This seems to be an attempt by the left-side to make it a personal attack WHILE attacking the name of the DS-kid.

6. 1. If you’re a Democrat and you make a VP pick without fulling vetting the individual you’re “reckless.”

   2. A Republican who doesn’t fully vet is a “maverick.”

      • Wait, people were calling Biden a reckless pick?

7. 1. If you say that for the “first time in my adult lifetime I’m really proud of my country” it makes you “unfit” to be First Lady.

   2. If you are a registered member of a fringe political group that advocates secession that makes you “First Dude.”

      • You should be proud of your country as a participating American; however, you need not be proud of its actions. As for the fringe group, Peter O pointed out to me that that was misleading info. Get your facts straight...

8. 1. A DUI from twenty years ago is “old news.”

   2. A speech given without proper citation from twenty years ago is “relevant information.”

      • Both of these are non-issues raised because there is nothing else to say...

9. 1. And, finally, if you’re a man and you decide to run for office despite your wife’s reoccurrence of cancer you’re a “questionable spouse.”

   2. If you’re a woman and you decide to run for office despite having five kids including a newborn with Downs Syndrome… Well, we don’t know what that is ‘cause THAT’S NOT A FAIR QUESTION TO ASK!

      • As far as I am aware Edwards was never challenged based on his commitment (or lack thereof) to his wife. If he was, and it was by the same party that is defending Palin, then we have an issue.

   Vol. 2

10. 1. If you get 18 million people to vote for you in a national presidential primary, you’re a “phoney.”

    2. Get 100,000+ people to vote you governor of the 47th most populous state in the Union, you’re “well loved.”

       • Obama was called a Phoney, or are you talking about Clinton here? Either way, so what. All democrats are phonies and all Republicans are loved to the right-side. The inverse is true to the left-side.

11. 1. SoyAA says: If you are biracial and born in a state not connected to the lower 48, America needs darn near 2 years and 3 major speeches to “get to know you.”

    2. If you’re white and from a state not connected to the lower 48, America needs 36 minutes and 38 seconds worth of an acceptance speech to know you’re “one of us.”

       • Who determined when America knew a candidate; I sure as hell was not asked.

12. 1. If you give your wife a dap on stage, it’s actually a “terrorist fist jab.”

    2. If your daughter licks her palm so that she can slick down your youngest child’s hair on national TV it’s an “adorable moment.” (Seriously, forget about abstinence only, teach these folks some grooming skills).

       • I am not seeing the likeness here. The far-right called the fist jab terroristic, not the majority of the right.

13. 1. DTD SAYS: If your pastor rails against inequality in the United States of America, you’re an “extremist.”

    2. If your pastor welcomes a sermon by a member of Jews for Jesus who preaches that the killing of Jews by terrorists is a lesson to Jews that they must convert to Christianity, you’re a “fundamentalist.”

       • Fundamentalists are extremists. The Jews for Jesus (thus, not Jews) are the exact same as Wright.

14. 1. If you’re a black man and you use a scholarship to get into college, then work your way up to being the president of the Harvard Law Review, you’re “uppity.”

    2. If you’re a conservative and your parents pay your way to Hawaii Pacific University . . . you only have four more schools to attend over the next five years before you somehow manage to graduate (it might be five more school over the next five years. No one has yet verified whether or not Palin was actually ever registered at the University of Hawaii at Hilo. But, you know how shady people are who ever attended any kind of school in Hawaii).

       • The only person I remember calling Obama Uppity was his own Veep candidate: Biden.

15. 1. SeanOcali says: If you’re 18, white, and get a 16 year old girl pregnant “life happens.”

    2. If you’re 18, black, and impregnate a 16 year old girl, you’re a “registered sex offender.”

       • Depends on the state; either way, the law should be above color.

16. 1. If you spend 18 months building a campaign around the theme of “Change,” it’s just “empty rhetoric.”

    2. If one week before your party’s national convention you SUDDENLY make your candidacy about “Change,” that’s “red meat.”

       • What? McCain is not about change, nor is he about Bush, he is about the positions he has always been. Obama is about change (be that good or bad).

17. And your last lesson for the day:

    1. If you are a Democrat, an Independent, or even a moderate Republican, if you’re female, male, white, black, Asian, Hispanic, bi-racial, multi-ethnic, or GLBT, if you’re a Jew, Gentile, Muslim, agnostic or atheist - “Yes, we can!”

    2. If you’re a pitbull with lipstick from Alaska, “Yup, yup!”

       • This just proves my point that this is nothing but a political attempt to create controversy. People, grow up, and act like bloody adults.

*Map Update*

So, when they release roughly 5000 polls in one week this is nearly impossible for me to do. Obama barely gained anywhere and McCain gained a bunch. Look at the polls your self over at Real Clear Politics yourself if you want to see the more recent update (my info is from Noon on Sunday).

With the new polls release Virginia is now in the McCain camp as is North Dakota. Obama lost ground in almost every state, and thus is getting closer and closer to not being a winner (He lost ground in both NH and NM, both would cost him the election by a few votes). Nationally, McCain had a gigantic spike as he is now +2.3. In the EC count, Obama is still winning with 273 to 265, but it is very close. Next week we will see if this is a bounce due to Palin and the Convention or not.

As always, please leave any comments, no matter how large or how small about the contents of this blog post. Also, please leave any comments/suggestions about this site/post as a whole.

Feel free to e-mail me if you so wish too instead.

Thanks,

Robert M. Barga,

Editor of http://whalertly.blogspot.com/

barga.24@osu.edu

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