Friday, August 8, 2008

How To Win Ohio (or prevent Obama from doing it)

Post 41:

Take a good look at the layout of the counties of Ohio. Remember it, you will need it. Ohio is going to be a swing state again in this coming election and Obama needs to win it in order to become the president. McCain, in theory, can keep the status quo in Ohio which would ensure his victory; basically, keep Obama from winning Ohio and McCain wins it all. Lets look at how a Democrat can win Ohio.

When you look at the counties of Ohio notice three particular areas, the places around Franklin, Lucas, and Cuyahoga counties. These counties and the surrounding areas are essential Democratic strongholds in this state. We can assume that these will be democrat areas. Now, to win the rest of the state by a large enough margin Obama would need to ensure that he gets at least 40% in the Appalachian counties, that is, the counties on our eastern border. Think of it as an inverse-C. If Obama can get these counties he should have this state.

Looking at the past elections, Clinton, Strickland, Other Clinton, and Bush won these areas easily. Ignoring Strickland (who argued based on his location and life experience) these counties were won by hitting home three issues: economy, security, taxes. If you can ensure the working people of these areas that you will help the economy (give them jobs), secure this country (being a Republican helps in this area) and lower taxes then you can win. You need these people to win this state. Furthermore, the people in those areas reflect Virginia, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania, so it is essential to have them.

All McCain needs to do is win in one of the three categories and he should be able to pull of a win in Ohio. With 60+% of Ohioans thinking that we should stay in Iraq he has security down pat. So, basically, if McCain can ensure the people of Appalachia that he will not raise taxes and that he will bring them jobs then McCain can win this state. Also, the fact that Obama is black will help McCain out slightly in those areas.

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Mountain Sage said...

I think your assessment is right on. McCain needs to hit those areas hard!

I know the Obama campaign is pretty confident about swinging VA into the blue column but I'm not so sure. I'm not sure N.VA is enough to swing the state and I think that's what it will come down to.

Anonymous said...

Good speculation, but it always comes down to those that actually get out and vote.
By the way, I suggest voting absentee ... Brunner has messed with the election laws and machines too much. Hand carry the ballot to the Board of Elections. Your vote will have better odds of being counted there.
I hope McCain wins!

Barga said...

MS -

Well, it really depends on who Obama has as Veep. If he gets VAs governor he wins VA, otherwise he might not pull it off
What is funny is that while one polling agency (gallups) had Obama +2, whenm you factored in VEEPS there was no combo of Obama with anybody that beat McCain

Barga said...

Anonymous, while i agree that voting absentee is a great way to ensure counting, i trust our system to be fool-proof

Ben said...

Yes, it will come down to who turns out in Ohio. If Republicans can match the 04 turnout they will win. If they dont, then probably not.

As far as VA, people forget Bush won there by 8% in 2004. Kerry held it close for a lot of the summer 4 years ago before fading. That wont happen this time, but an 8% swing is asking alot. No doubt it will be closer, but I think Mccain will win it. The more I think about it, I am not sure that Kaine would do anything for Obama there.

Anonymous said...

If you listen to those in power now ... the system is not to be trusted. Doesn't that concern you?

Anonymous said...

Hillary is posing for a takeover!
Why do the Clintons get highlighted two nights at the convention? Obama had better get back from his vacation and get to work.

Barga said...

---------If you listen to those in power now ... the system is not to be trusted. Doesn't that concern you?------------

I can not say anything about those in power for obvious reasons; however, i believe that it is fine and trustworthy

Barga said...

-------------Hillary is posing for a takeover!
Why do the Clintons get highlighted two nights at the convention? Obama had better get back from his vacation and get to work.---------------

1) Former President and main leader of the party
2) Runner up (and close one) during the primaries

I think they deserve the spot
Evidence of HIlary posing for a takeover?


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